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镀锌板市场情绪偏空,成交继续萎缩,钢价下行趋势

返回列表 来源: 发布日期: 2019.12.30

镀锌板市场情绪偏空,成交继续萎缩,钢价下行趋势

天物彩板专注彩板行业16年——由于钢材市场价格 每日都有变动,淄博镀锌板生产厂家_山东镀锌板最新价格详细请拨打网站上方电话咨询

淄博镀锌板生产厂家_山东镀锌板最新价格_天物彩板

基本面:库存大幅增加42万吨反映需求加速回落
一。库存增加42万吨 
上周五,主要品类库存数据增加41.57万吨,产量小幅下降4400吨。品种方面,螺纹钢库存增加明显,特别是在产量下降9万吨的背景下,工厂、仓库、社会、仓库共增加23.55万吨,反映出需求逐步下降。中厚板方面,小库存增加,热轧增加5.44万吨,冷轧增加5.40万吨,中厚板增加4.79万吨。总体来看,建材库存积累加快,板材库存略有增加,需求下行趋势增强,钢材价格将继续承受下行压力,建材降幅将大于板材。 
2。第三轮焦炭涨落,原料端运行强劲 
受焦化产能下降和违法项目停产停产等影响,焦炭供应量下降,并进行了两轮提价。但随着近期环保升级和限产,由于焦炭企业限产,市场供应持续萎缩,第三轮提价正在逐步实施。据了解,河北邯郸、唐山地区钢厂首度同意此轮提价,大部分于12月26日实施,山东部分钢厂也从12月26日零时起将焦炭收购价上调50元/吨。 
三。生态环境部加大钢铁企业排放监测管理力度 
生态环境部近日下发《关于钢铁企业超低排放评价和监测的通知》,要求钢铁企业完成超低排放改造,连续稳定运行1个月,根据《钢铁企业超低排放评价和监测技术导则》的规定,可以独立或委托有资质的监测机构和有资质的技术机构进行有组织排放和无组织排放,对钢铁企业的运输进行评价和监测散装材料和产品。此外,要加强对钢铁企业和相关考核监察机构弄虚作假的联合处罚。 
这也意味着钢铁行业的环保要求将越来越严格,行业环保成本将进一步提高,这也将加大优胜劣汰的步伐,2020年淘汰落后产能的力度将继续加大。 
四。宏观焦点: 
一月,山西、四川省、浙江省、湖南省、青岛市等地纷纷公布了2020年度地方债券发行信息,明年一月将发行1706亿3000万元专项债券。这将有助于明年一季度基础设施投资继续发力,有助于春节后钢材需求回升。 
② 下调标准的预期增强:临近年底,资金面通常较为紧张,但在连续第三天暂停逆回购的背景下,银行间隔夜拆借利率继续下降。12月26日,多数Shibor指数下跌,隔夜品种下跌95个基点至0.848%,创7月4日以来新低。中国银行隔夜回购加权平均利率下跌超过9个基点,为2009年以来的最低日内水平。反映目前基金相对宽松,这也被业内人士解读为下调标准的预期增强,且效果提前显现。至于市场猜测今晚会发布消息,我们拭目以待!
镀锌钢板市场人气看空,成交持续萎缩,钢材价格下跌 
市场预测 
临近春节,本周库存数据明显增加,反映出当前需求加速下降。从今年冬储市场来看,贸易商的热情普遍较低。一方面,今年钢材冬储政策相对较强,结算价格普遍高于去年同期

Fundamentals: a sharp increase in inventory of 420000 tons reflects the accelerated fall in demand

1. Inventory increased by 420000 tons
On Friday, the inventory data of major categories increased by 415700 tons, while the output slightly decreased by 4400 tons. In terms of varieties, the increase of screw steel storage is obvious, especially in the context of the production decline of 90000 tons, the total increase of 235500 tons in the factory, warehouse, society and warehouse, reflecting the gradual decline in demand. In terms of plates, small stock accumulation, hot rolling stock increased by 54400 tons, cold rolling stock increased by 5400 tons, medium and thick plate stock increased by 47900 tons. Overall, the stock accumulation of building materials accelerated, the stock of plates increased slightly, the downward trend of demand increased, the steel price will continue to bear downward pressure, and the decline of building materials will be greater than that of plates.
2. Coke rises and lands in the third round, and the raw material end is in strong operation
Affected by the reduction of coking production capacity and the suspension and shutdown of illegal projects, the supply of coke has declined and two rounds of price hikes have been carried out. However, with the recent upgrading of environmental protection and production restriction, the market supply continues to shrink due to the production restriction of coke enterprises, and the third round of price hike is gradually implemented. It is understood that the steel mills in Handan and Tangshan areas of Hebei first agreed to increase the price in this round, most of which were implemented on December 26, and some steel mills in Shandong also increased the purchase price of coke by 50 yuan / ton from 0:00 on December 26.
3. The Ministry of ecological environment increases the monitoring and management of emissions of iron and steel enterprises
The Ministry of ecological environment recently issued the notice on the assessment and monitoring of ultra-low emission of iron and steel enterprises, which requires iron and steel enterprises to complete the transformation of ultra-low emission and operate continuously and stably for one month, and then they can independently or entrust qualified monitoring institutions and competent technical institutions to conduct organized emission and unorganized emission according to the technical guidelines for assessment and monitoring of ultra-low emission of iron and steel enterprises Carry out evaluation and monitoring on the transportation of bulk materials and products. In addition, the joint punishment should be strengthened for the steel enterprises and relevant assessment and monitoring institutions that commit fraud.
This also means that the environmental protection requirements of the steel industry will be more and more strict, and the environmental protection cost of the industry will further increase, which will also increase the pace of survival of the fittest, and the elimination of backward production capacity in 2020 will continue to increase.
4. Macro focus:
① Many places have determined the new scale of special bonds in January: by December 25, Shanxi Province, Sichuan Province, Zhejiang Province, Hunan Province and Qingdao City have disclosed the information of local bond issuance in 2020, and a total of 170.63 billion yuan of new special bonds will be issued in January next year. It will help infrastructure investment continue to make efforts in the first quarter of next year, which will help steel demand pick up after the Spring Festival. 
② The epectation of reducing the standard is strengthened: near the end of the year, the fund is usually tight, but in the context of suspending reverse repo for the third consecutive day, the overnight interbank offered rate continued to decline. On December 26, most shibors fell, and the overnight varieties fell 9.5bp to 0.848%, a new low since July 4. The Bank of China's overnight repo weighted average interest rate fell more than nine basis points, the lowest intraday level since 2009. Reflecting that the current fund is relatively loose, which is also interpreted by industry figures as that the expectation of reducing the standard is increased, and the effect appears in advance. As for the market speculation this evening will release the news, we will wait and see!
The market sentiment of galvanized steel sheet is short, the transaction continues to shrink, and the steel price is declining
Market forecast
Near the Spring Festival, this week's inventory data increased significantly, reflecting the accelerated decline in current demand. From the perspective of this year's winter storage market, the enthusiasm of traders is generally low. On the one hand, this year's steel winter storage policy is relatively strong, and the settlement price is generally higher than that of the same period last year. On the other hand, most merchants are affected by last year's losses. In the context of the general decline of industry profits this year, the willingness of winter storage is not high.
At present, the market sentiment of galvanized steel sheet is short, the transaction continues to shrink, the steel price downward trend, and the high price regional decline is more obvious.
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