彩钢板头条：今年钢材成本趋向提高

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2019年以来，中国的钢铁成本有所上升。朗格钢铁网市场监测数据显示，2019年4月5日，全国钢材成本指数为106.9，比去年同期上涨9.3%，比上一个低点（2018年12月28日）上涨9.5%。钢铁成本的上涨主要是由于原材料和能源价格的上涨。
展望2019年中国钢铁生产成本，上述原材料和能源价格将继续上涨。

一是高档铁矿石价格上涨
近年来，由于多种因素的影响，国际市场对高品位铁矿石的需求，实际上并没有出现严重的供过于求的局面。
由于去年年底淡水河谷的溃坝和连锁反应，导致千万吨铁矿石（高品位，下同）供应减少，导致供需关系紧张，从而大幅推高了离岸价格。
高盛因此将3个月期铁矿石价格预测从70美元/吨上调至80美元/吨，6个月期铁矿石价格预测从60美元/吨上调至70美元/吨。花旗银行甚至预计，今年年中铁矿石价格将升至100美元/吨。
考虑到国内钢铁企业铁矿石库存疲软、钢铁产量持续增加、高品位铁矿石依存度上升等因素，未来我国对高品位铁矿石的需求将有所增加，从而支撑其高价格运行。
兰格钢铁网市场监测数据显示，2019年4月10日，日照港（600017）61.5%澳大利亚粉料价格为680元/吨，较前期低点（2018年11月28日）上涨33%，较去年同期上涨54%，普氏铁矿石价格指数分别上涨43%和49%。受此影响，今年一季度铁矿石进口均价已达79.16美元/吨，同比上涨7.2%。
特别是从逐月看，2018年2月铁矿石进口均价处于阶段性高点，随后回落至年中，但今年呈反向上涨趋势。
可以预见，如果未来不发生重大事故，全年优质铁矿石价格应高于上年，这并不排除未来几个月价格继续坚挺的可能性。
二是油价大幅上涨
今年年初以来，油价大幅上涨。目前，国际市场油价已突破每桶60美元。据测算，今年一季度，我国进口油气价格同比上涨20%以上，导致国内成品油价格多次上涨。
由于地缘政治因素的影响，预计今年国际市场油价将高位运行，这也不排除继续上涨的可能性。
受此推动，2019年进口油气价格将远高于上年水平，这使得国内价格相应上涨。国内外油气价格的上涨也将对国内其他能源如煤炭、焦炭、电力等的生产价格产生一定的联动或支撑作用。
钢铁行业属于高耗能行业。今年，石油等能源价格的上涨必将影响整个钢铁产业链的生产和物流成本，从而导致总成本的增加。
可以看出，在上述两个重要因素的推动下，今年我国钢价将趋于上涨。
笔者认为，钢铁成本将大幅提高，这将对钢铁市场产生两方面的影响：
一是产生一定的钢价支撑效应。如果供需平衡或偏紧，也会促进市场上涨。
二是降低钢铁行业利润水平；
值得注意的是，今年冶炼原材料等成本涨幅似乎超过了价格涨幅，预计今年缺口还会加大。在这种情况下，钢铁企业的利润必然受到侵蚀。

Since this year, China's steel cost has increased. According to the market monitoring data of Lange steel network, on April 5, 2019, the national steel cost index was 106.9, up 9.3% over the same period last year, and 9.5% over the previous low (December 28, 2018). The increase of steel cost is mainly caused by the increase of raw material and energy price.
Looking forward to China's steel production cost in 2019, the above raw material and energy prices will continue to increase.
First, the price of high-grade iron ore is rising
In recent years, due to a variety of factors, the international market for high-grade iron ore, in fact, does not present a serious oversupply situation.
As a result of the dam break and chain reaction in Vale at the end of last year, tens of millions of tons of iron ore (high grade, the same below) were reduced in supply, resulting in a tight supply-demand relationship, thus driving up the offshore price by a large margin.
Goldman Sachs therefore raised its three-month iron ore price forecast from $70 / T to $80 / T and six-month iron ore price forecast from $60 / T to $70 / T. Citibank even expects iron ore prices to rise to $100 a tonne in the middle of this year.
Considering the weak iron ore inventory of domestic iron and steel enterprises, the continuous increase of iron and steel production, the increase of high-grade iron ore dependence and other factors, China's demand for high-grade iron ore will increase in the future, so as to support its high price operation.
According to the market monitoring data of Lange Iron and steel network, on April 10, 2019, the price of 61.5% Australian powder in Rizhao Port (600017) was 680 yuan / ton, 33% higher than the previous low (November 28, 2018), 54% higher than the same period last year, while the price of Proctor's iron ore index increased by 43% and 49% respectively. Affected by this, the average import price of iron ore in the first quarter of this year has reached 79.16 USD / ton, up 7.2% year on year.
In particular, from a month on month basis, the average import price of iron ore in February 2018 was at a periodical peak, then turned down to the middle of the year, but this year is a reverse upward trend.
It can be predicted that if there is no major accident in the future, the price of high-grade iron ore in the whole year should be higher than that of the previous year, which does not exclude the possibility that the price will continue to be strong in the next few months.
The second is the sharp rise in oil prices
Since h beginning of this year, oil prices have increased significantly. At present, the oil price in the international market has been above $60 per barrel. It is estimated that in the first quarter of this year, the price of China's imported oil and gas rose by more than 20% year on year, which led to multiple increases in the price of domestic refined oil.
Due to the influence of geopolitical factors, it is expected that oil prices in the international market will run at a high level this year, which also does not exclude the possibility of continuing to rise.
Driven by this, the price of imported oil and gas in 2019 will be much higher than the previous year's level, which makes the domestic price rise correspondingly. The rise of oil and gas prices at home and abroad will also have a certain linkage or support effect on the production prices of other domestic energy sources, such as coal, coke, electricity, etc.
The steel industry belongs to the high-energy consumption industry. This year, the rise of oil and other energy prices will certainly affect the production and logistics costs of the whole steel industry chain, which will lead to the increase of the total cost.
It can be seen that driven by the above two important factors, the cost of steel in China will tend to increase this year.
The author believes that the cost of steel will be greatly increased, which will have two impacts on the steel market:
One is to produce a certain steel price supporting effect. If the supply and demand balance or is tight, it will also promote the market to rise.
Second, reduce the profit level of steel industry;
It is worth noting that the cost increase of smelting raw materials and other costs this year seems to exceed the price increase, and the gap is expected to increase in this year. In this case, the profits of steel enterprises are bound to be eroded.