痛并坚持着 钢铁彩涂卷行业迈向去产能关键时间窗口

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钢铁产业是国民经济的基础产业，是技术、资本、资源、能源、劳动密集型产业，也是产能过剩最严重、影响最大的产业之一。2015年，由于投资下降、金融市场波动以及许多发展中国家和地区的地缘政治冲突，全球钢铁业陷入了前所未有的困境。欧洲、亚洲、北美等主要地区的钢厂都在苦苦挣扎，生存越来越困难。受需求下降影响，我国钢铁市场供需矛盾凸显。进口铁矿石价格垄断进一步加剧，价格竞争日趋激烈，环境保护压力加大。从钢铁工业发展的大局来看，2015年是中国钢铁工业“痛苦而持久”的重大转折年。在供需矛盾未发生实质性变化的情况下，2016年钢铁行业难以有好的市场，寒冬仍将持续。

自2015年初钢铁产量和需求出现转折点以来，世界经济复苏缓慢。据国际钢铁协会统计，2015年全球钢铁需求量为15.13亿吨，比2014年下降1.7%；全球钢铁产量为1.27亿吨，比2014年下降4.1%。全球钢铁工业总体呈现“三降三增”的局面。其中，“三降”意味着价格下降、需求下降和产出下降，“三降”意味着停产、亏损和裁员增多“三降三多”充分显示了钢铁行业的困境，并将迫使各国钢铁企业在未来进行更多的转型发展，以求生存。作为全球最大的钢铁需求国，中国对全球钢铁供需形势的影响尤为严峻。中国约一半的钢铁需求与固定资产投资有关。随着房地产、制造业等固定资产投资增速下降，钢铁生产和需求出现了好转。据统计，2015年1-11月，全国粗钢产量73838万吨，同比下降2.2%；钢材产量102812万吨，同比增长1%，下降3.5%。据权威部门统计，随着钢价持续走低，2015年长期停产企业明显增多，总产能约6000万吨。2015年，中国粗钢产量约8.06亿吨，同比下降2%，这将是1981年以来中国粗钢产量首次出现负增长。目前，我国人均粗钢产量已超过600公斤。根据发达国家粗钢产量变化趋势的一般规律，推测粗钢产量达到峰值后，在峰值附近经过一段时间的波动后将呈现下降趋势。受世界经济复苏低于预期、国内经济下行压力加大等因素影响，我国建筑、机械、汽车等钢铁下游产业增速放缓。2015年，中国钢铁消费量降至6.68亿吨左右，同比下降4.8%，为1996年以来首次下降。由于近几年钢铁行业进入门槛较低，产品同质化严重，多数亏损，少数盈利。特别是2008年，以房地产和基础设施投资为主的中国救市政策和充裕的流动性，刺激了钢铁行业的产能投资，导致现阶段和结构性产能过剩困境。

Iron and steel industry is the basic industry of national economy, which is technology, capital, resources, energy, labor-intensive industry, but also one of the industries with the most serious overcapacity and the biggest impact. In 2015, due to the decline of investment, the fluctuation of financial market and the geopolitical conflicts in many developing countries and regions, the global steel industry fell into an unprecedented predicament. The steel plants in Europe, Asia, North America and other major regions were all struggling, and their survival became more and more difficult. Affected by the decline of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand in China's steel market is highlighted. The price monopoly of imported iron ore is further increased, the price competition is increasingly fierce, and the pressure of environmental protection is increased. From the overall situation of the development of the steel industry, 2015 is a major turning year for China's steel industry, which is "painful and persistent". Under the condition that the contradiction between supply and demand has not substantially changed, it is difficult for the steel industry to have a good market in 2016, and the cold winter will continue.

Since the turning point of steel output and demand in early 2015, the world economic recovery has been slow. According to the international iron and Steel Association, the global steel demand in 2015 is 1.513 billion tons, down 1.7% compared with 2014, and the global steel output is 127 million tons, down 4.1% compared with 2014. The global steel industry as a whole presents a situation of "three drops and three more". Among them, "three drops" means price drop, demand drop and output drop, "three more" means more production stops, more losses and more layoffs. "Three falls and three more" fully shows the difficult situation of the steel industry, and will force steel enterprises of all countries to carry out more transformation and development in the future in order to survive. As the world's largest steel demand country, China's impact on the global steel supply and demand situation is particularly critical. About half of China's steel demand is related to fixed asset investment. With the growth rate of real estate, manufacturing and other fixed asset investment declining, steel production and demand have turned around. According to statistics, from January to November 2015, the national crude steel output was 738.38 million tons, down 2.2% year-on-year, and the steel output was 1028.12 million tons, up 1%, down 3.5% year-on-year. According to the authoritative department, as the steel price continues to decline, the number of long-term shutdown enterprises increased significantly in 2015, with a total capacity of about 60 million tons. In 2015, China's crude steel output was about 806 million tons, down 2% year on year, which will be the first negative growth of China's crude steel output since 1981. At present, China's per capita crude steel output has exceeded 600 kg. According to the general law of the change trend of crude steel output in developed countries, it is speculated that after the crude steel output reaches the peak, it will show a downward trend after a period of fluctuation near the peak. Influenced by the less than expected recovery of the world economy and the increasing downward pressure of the domestic economy, the growth rate of China's steel downstream industries, such as construction, machinery and automobile, slowed down. In 2015, China's steel consumption dropped to about 668 million tons, down 4.8% year-on-year, the first decline since 1996. Due to the low entry threshold of iron and steel industry in the past few years, the homogenization of products is serious, most of them suffer losses and a few have profits. Especially in 2008, China's rescue policy and abundant liquidity, which mainly focus on real estate and infrastructure investment, stimulated the capacity investment in the steel industry, resulting in the current stage and structural overcapacity dilemma.